{"id":680,"date":"2020-05-31T20:52:16","date_gmt":"2020-06-01T00:52:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ouragans.com\/wp\/?p=680"},"modified":"2020-06-03T17:02:15","modified_gmt":"2020-06-03T21:02:15","slug":"previsions-pour-la-saison-cyclonique-2020-dans-latlantique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ouragans.com\/wp\/previsions-pour-la-saison-cyclonique-2020-dans-latlantique\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e9visions pour la saison cyclonique 2020 dans l’Atlantique"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Comme chaque ann\u00e9e, de nombreux instituts publient des pr\u00e9visions quant \u00e0 l’activit\u00e9 de la saison cyclonique \u00e0 venir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour 2020, nous vous avons essay\u00e9 de regrouper la plupart des sources, pour vous permettre de comparer et de tirer le bilan \u00e0 la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Un consensus se d\u00e9gage pour pr\u00e9voir que cette saison cyclonique sera active, avec pour certains instituts, une hyperactivit\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


A quoi ceci est d\u00fb? 3 ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes conjugu\u00e9s devraient influencer la saison:
– la pr\u00e9sence du ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne La Ni\u00f1a ou un El Ni\u00f1o en phase neutre entre ao\u00fbt et octobre
– la temp\u00e9rature \u00e9lev\u00e9e de l\u2019Atlantique en surface
– une faiblesse relative de la pr\u00e9sence de poussi\u00e8re d\u2019origine Saharienne dans l\u2019atmosph\u00e8re<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
R\u00e9sum\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions pour la saison cyclonique 2020<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Colorado State University<\/a> <\/strong>(Philip Klotzback):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– au 2 avril: 16 temp\u00eates – 8 ouragans – 4 ouragans majeurs<\/strong>
80 jours de temp\u00eate – 35 jours d’ouragans – 9 jours d’ouragans majeurs
Probabilit\u00e9 d’impact d’un ouragan majeur dans la Cara\u00efbe: 58% (moyenne: 42%)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Pr\u00e9visions de la Colorado State University au 2 avril<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Source<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prochaine mise \u00e0 jour le 4 juin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tropical Storm Risk<\/a> <\/strong>(Mark Saunders, Frank Roberts & Adam Lea \/ Britanniques):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– au 19 d\u00e9cembre 2019: 15 temp\u00eates – 7 ouragans – 4 ouragans majeurs <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– au 7 avril: 16 temp\u00eates – 8 ouragans – 3 ouragans majeurs<\/strong>
Probabilit\u00e9 de formation d’un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne dans la MDR (10\u00b0N-20\u00b0N, 20\u00b0W-60\u00b0W), la Mer des Antilles et le Golfe du Mexique: 11 temp\u00eates, 6 ouragans, 3 ouragans majeurs <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– au 28 mai: 17 temp\u00eates – 8 ouragans – 3 ouragans majeurs<\/strong>
Probabilit\u00e9 de formation d’un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne dans la MDR (10\u00b0N-20\u00b0N, 20\u00b0W-60\u00b0W), la Mer des Antilles et le Golfe du Mexique: 11 temp\u00eates, 6 ouragans, 3 ouragans majeurs<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Accuweather<\/a> <\/strong>(Jillian MacMath)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– au 25 mars: 14 \u00e0 18 temp\u00eates – 7 \u00e0 9 ouragans – 2 \u00e0 4 ouragans majeurs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Pr\u00e9visions de Accuweather au 25 mars<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Source<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– au 7 mai: 14 \u00e0 20 temp\u00eates – 7 \u00e0 11 ouragans – 4 \u00e0 6 ouragans majeurs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Pr\u00e9visions de Accuweather au 7 mai<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Source<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOAA<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– au 21 mai: 13 \u00e0 19 temp\u00eates – 6 \u00e0 10 ouragans – 3 \u00e0 6 ouragans majeurs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Source<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Weather Channel<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– au 16 avril: 18 temp\u00eates – 9 ouragans – 4 ouragans majeurs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Pr\u00e9visions de The Weather Channel<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Source<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crowne Weather Services<\/strong><\/a> (Rob Lightbown)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– au 10 mars: 15 temp\u00eates – 8 ouragans – 3 ouragans majeurs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Pr\u00e9visions de Crowne Weather Services<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Source<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

UK Met Office<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– au 19 mai: 13 temp\u00eates – 7 ouragans – 3 ouragans majeurs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Pr\u00e9visions de UKMet<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Source<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Servicio de Meteorologia Nacional<\/strong><\/a> (Mexique)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

– au 22 mai: 15 \u00e0 19 temp\u00eates – 7 \u00e0 9 ouragans – 3 \u00e0 4 ouragans majeurs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Pr\u00e9visions du SMT du Mexique<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Source<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Comme chaque ann\u00e9e, de nombreux instituts publient des pr\u00e9visions quant \u00e0 l’activit\u00e9 de la saison cyclonique \u00e0 venir. Pour 2020,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":752,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ocean-atlantique"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ouragans.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/680","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ouragans.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ouragans.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ouragans.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ouragans.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=680"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.ouragans.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/680\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":692,"href":"https:\/\/www.ouragans.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/680\/revisions\/692"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ouragans.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/752"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ouragans.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ouragans.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ouragans.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}